Double & Triple Dips in ice cream cones can be a good thing, unless you are watching your weight. Double & Triple Dips in roller coasters is a good thing, unless you have a weak stomach. Double & Triple Dips in the real estate market can be a good thing, just depends on your perspective. The headline on CNNMoney.com on the spookiest day of the year was scary for the real estate market: Home Prices Heading for Triple-Dip. The link for this article is: http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/31/real_estate/home_prices/
After reading the entire article and not just the headline, I discovered that it depends on which real estate market you are speaking about as to whether a triple dip is predicted. And as is the case with ice cream and roller coasters, what matters is your perspective. The market area I practice real estate in is the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria area, which is delineated by Fiserv as DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Division and has a forecast change second quarter, 2011 to second quarter, 2012 of -3.2% and a forecast change for second quarter, 2012 to second quarter, 2013 as +2.3%. This is the link for predictions for the DC market area: http://cgi.money.cnn.com/tools/homepricedata/index.html?iid=EL
If I was counseling a buyer, I would say: “What are you waiting for, prices to go up? It is a tremendous time to buy”. Waiting too long may very well mean higher prices. It is actually a tremendous time to be a seller as well because the buyers recognize that prices are on the verge of going up and are coming back into the marketplace.
I entered the real estate business in 1982 in Dallas, Texas with Crow Development Company, a division of Trammell Crow Residential. In 1982 the economy was in a recession and interest rates were close to 18%, yet we developed lots and sold them to builders who built homes for people. Just last week I had the privilege of having dinner with my first boss at Crow Development, Ron Haynes. Ron and I commiserated over the current market, and then realized how good we actually have it currently compared to 1982. Interest rates are historically low, oftentimes below 4% and prices relative to earnings are in line for most markets in the country. Ron commented that this isn’t his first down cycle, so that must mean that he has had just as many up cycles. What goes down must go up.
Actually, the entire cyclical theme is Biblical: remember the 7 years of plenty and 7 years of want in the Old Testament, read Genesis 41:29-30. From 1982 to 1989 there was 7 years of mostly upward mobility in real estate values. In 1990 to 1997 there was 7 years of mostly downward values in real estate. In 1998 to 2005 there was 7 years of predominately upward trends in real estate. And in the last 7 years of 2006-2011 there has been a mostly downward focus of real estate values. That means 2012 should be the start of the upswing in real estate values.
If you are a buyer and wait too long, you might miss it. If you are a seller and this is the right time for you to make a move, then just do it. 2012 is right around the corner!
Karen Briscoe and Lizzy Conroy are Realtors ® in the Northern Virginia, Washington DC market place and would be delighted to assist whether for home buying or selling. The Huckaby Briscoe Group was recognized in September 2011 as one of the Wall Street Journal Top Real Estate Teams in the United States. Please contact via the means most convenient for you: www.HBCRealtyGroup.com, 703-734-0192, Homes@HBCRealtyGroup.com.
Karen is originally from Columbia, Missouri and graduated from Stephens College with a BA in Business Administration and Mathematics. She began her real estate career 26 years ago developing residential lots for the Trammell Crow Co. in Dallas, Texas. Soon after, Karen married Andy Briscoe and completed a Masters degree from Southern Methodist University. Andy’s career with public policy relocated the family to McLean in 1994. In the Washington metro area Karen worked in commercial real estate with The Staubach Company before becoming a residential real estate agent with the Sue Huckaby team. Karen is an Associate Broker in Virginia and represents sellers and buyers primarily in the McLean, Great Falls, Falls Church, Arlington, Vienna, and Alexandria areas. The Briscoe family is active at church in McLean where they became friends with Sue and Jerry Huckaby. Karen is on the Board of Lift Me Up! (the handicap horseback riding program in Great Falls) where their daughter Callie previously boarded her horse. Andy is active in Boy Scouts as their son, Drew, is an Eagle Scout. Drew is a senior at Southern Methodist University and Callie is a senior at McLean High School.
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